tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6025826557590691038.post5643852400065583220..comments2023-11-26T01:21:20.735-07:00Comments on Private Buffoon: Checking up on myself and my forecasting abilityAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02440633362961743573noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6025826557590691038.post-85628276050938570072016-05-31T21:24:25.879-06:002016-05-31T21:24:25.879-06:00Sam Wang today released his first election project...Sam Wang today released his first election projection. If the election were held today he projects an Electoral Vote of Clinton 336, Trump 202. <br /><br /><br />The Meta-Margin (defined as how far the Clinton-Trump margins in state polls would have to change, across the board, to create a perfect knife-edge race in which the median outcome is an electoral tie 269 EV to 269 EV) is Clinton +4.24%. This is nearly identical to today’s HuffPollster national-poll estimate, Clinton +4.3%. <br /><br />And Trump has not scrambled the red/blue/toss-up map we have seen in at least the last 5 elections. The only exception is Utah where Trump is running over 30 percentage points weaker against Clinton than Barack Obama did against Mitt Romney. It turns out the Mormons really hate Donald Trump. Whether they are capable of voting for a woman for president remains to be seen.<br /><br />http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/31/state-poll-snapshot-clinton-336-trump-202-ev-meta-margin-4-2/#more-15796<br />TedTheCathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05654769865175210750noreply@blogger.com