Trump Will Become President, Says Extremely Accurate Statistician His statistical model has only ever been wrong once in 104 years. Helmut Norpoth, a professor of political science at Stony Brook University, has developed a statistical model that predicts a 97 percent to 99 percent chance that Trump will win the 2016 presidential election if he wins the Republican nomination... Norpoth's model has correctly predicted the outcome of every single presidential election since 1912 – save one, the election of 1960, which some believe was rigged. It uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary coupled with electoral cycle patterns to determine the likely outcome of the general election.I doubt that the model takes into account just how loathsome Trump is, and hope that this loathsomeness will upset purely statistical considerations.
Oh! a private buffoon is a light-hearted loon, If you listen to popular rumour; From the morn to the night he's so joyous and bright, And he bubbles with wit and good humour! He's so quaint and so terse, both in prose and in verse; Yet though people forgive his transgression, There are one or two rules that all family fools Must observe, if they love their profession. [Yeomen of the Guard, Gilbert & Sullivan]
Our Republican friends tell us that the free market is the best way to predict election results, and the betting markets say Clinton has a 67.6% chance of becoming the next president while Trump has only a 19% chance.
ReplyDeletehttps://electionbettingodds.com/week.html