Tuesday, November 6, 2007

"Connecting the dots"

In the immediate post-9/11 discussion, all the focus was on ‘connecting the dots.’ It was acknowledged that sufficient data existed to ferret out the plot – Saudi nationals getting pilot’s licenses, folks on ‘terrorist watch lists’ being admitted into the country, etc. The hue & cry was for additional ability/willingness to ‘connect the dots’. Bureaucratic inertia and ineptness were high-lighted as barriers to ‘connecting the dots.’

In the legislative fury that ensued, this was forgotten. Instead, the focus turned to generating more dots: let’s get more and more raw intelligence! More raw intelligence does NOT produce better intelligence. Better analysis and more institutional flexibility produce better intelligence. This has been forgotten.

It's frequently stated that the so-called Patriot Act closes 'loopholes' in the laws that were exploited by the 9/11 terrorists... but no one to my knowledge has EVER identified a SPECIFIC "loophole in the laws" exploited by the 9/11 hijackers. FISA has been serving us well - if just a bit extra-Contitutionally - since 1978.

We don't need more raw intelligence data, we need better analysis and more institutional responsiveness.

See Richard J. Heuer, Jr, "The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis"; available in full on-line:
pdf:
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/PsychofIntelNew.pdf
MS Word:
http://www.oss.net/dynamaster/file_archive/030403/deea6314a2fdb0f35b0344f2a36cd5cf/Psychology%20of%20Intelligence%20Analysis.doc
html:
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/index.html

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