Thursday, May 26, 2016

Checking up on myself and my forecasting ability

Back in March I wrote:
I'm honest
Just FYI: In a few months the GOP nominating process will have ended.
The Republicans will have a Presidential Candidate for 2016.

As many previous posts have suggested, I'm betting that the GOP candidate will be Mr. Donald Trump.

Unlike many other political commentators & pundits - many of whom get paid for their opinions - I WILL revisit my predictions in July.

If I've been right - HOORAY!
If I've been wrong - oh well, sigh.
Either way, I'll 'fess up.
In light of today's news, seems I don't have to wait till July:
Donald Trump has delegates to clinch GOP nomination
By MJ Lee, CNN National Politics Reporter
Updated 2:30 PM ET, Thu May 26, 2016

(CNN) — Donald Trump has the delegates to clinch the GOP presidential nomination, according to a CNN delegate count Thursday.

While Trump has had the nomination locked down for weeks, he has now reached the threshold of 1,237 delegates with the help of previously uncommitted delegates who now support his candidacy. A handful of states, including the large prizes of California and New Jersey, will hold the final primaries on June 7.
Quoting Dizzy Dean:
It ain't bragging if you can do it.

1 comment:

  1. Sam Wang today released his first election projection. If the election were held today he projects an Electoral Vote of Clinton 336, Trump 202.

    The Meta-Margin (defined as how far the Clinton-Trump margins in state polls would have to change, across the board, to create a perfect knife-edge race in which the median outcome is an electoral tie 269 EV to 269 EV) is Clinton +4.24%. This is nearly identical to today’s HuffPollster national-poll estimate, Clinton +4.3%.

    And Trump has not scrambled the red/blue/toss-up map we have seen in at least the last 5 elections. The only exception is Utah where Trump is running over 30 percentage points weaker against Clinton than Barack Obama did against Mitt Romney. It turns out the Mormons really hate Donald Trump. Whether they are capable of voting for a woman for president remains to be seen.