Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Family Feud

Iran president defies supreme leader over deputy
By ALI AKBAR DAREINI and LEE KEATH, Associated Press Writers
22 Jul 2009
TEHRAN, Iran – President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad showed rare defiance of his strongest backer, Iran's supreme leader, by insisting on his choice for vice president Wednesday despite vehement opposition from hard-liners that has opened a deep rift in the conservative leadership.

Where's Richard Dawson when we need him?

If I were betting, I'd bet on the hard-liners to eventually clearly, decisively, and forcefully exert their control. This isn't based on any deep understanding of Iranian politics, but only on the simple observation that "supreme leaders" really don't like to share power with anyone - no matter what the country's constitution might say.

Will they succeed? - If I knew the answer to that I'd be better off putting my ability to see the future to better use... 'better' from a purely personal, selfish perspective: cornering the next Big Deal in the market.

My preference would be for the regime to fall, as the Shah fell to them. Part of this preference derives from a desire for 'poetic justice', part from my antipathy towards theocracies, and part from my naive faith in real democracy.

What I really DON'T want to happen: the U.S. to undertake any military action against Iran - no matter how 'limited'!

[aside: Long ago, while teaching at UT El Paso, I had an Iranian student in my computer science class. This was during the Iranian Revolution, 1979-80. I asked him if everyday life back home seemed 'normal' despite the political upheaval. He smiled. "Normal? NO!"]

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