Tuesday, January 24, 2012

A prediction

... But first, a bit of commentary.
When the GOP field became apparent last summer, I was delighted: Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich, Santorum, Paul, Romney (Herman Cain wasn't yet in the mix then).
THIS is the best the GOP can field???

I've not been disappointed. ... Well, I was sad when Bachmann dropped out.

As the Republican primaries have progressed, everyone has done his very best to run right - pandering to the most conservative element of the GOP electorate.
No one has yet managed more than 50% of GOP voters... 40% is considered a big win.
Turn-out has been low.
Recent general elections have been pretty close to 50-50.
40% of 50% is 20%.
... The leading GOP candidate (whoever it might be this week) is getting 20% of general election votes. This may be how to get the nomination, but it's not much of a strategy for winning the one that counts in November.

... and now, as promised, a prediction: record low GOP turnout in November, and Obama winning by what would - in recent cycles - be considered a landslide - 55%.

[and, yes: as I have in the past, I'll re-visit this prediction to see how well I did.]

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