Tuesday, June 3, 2008

my near-term future has been determined

Martin Heinrich is the apparent Dem candidate for NM1.
'tween now and November I'll be volunteering on his campaign.
(Full disclosure: I sent $$$ and brilliant advice to all the Dem candidates - hedging my bets, as well as truly having no strong preference. I sent more $$$ to Heinrich than the others, but that's mostly because he was the first to declare his candidacy.)

My political instincts aren't all that great: I would've bet fair amount of $$$ that Heather Wilson would handily defeat Steve Pearce in the Republican race for U.S. Senate (Domenici's seat). Turns out Pearce was leading in most recent polls, and has 3%-4% lead in the primary as of tonight - looks like result won't be known till morning (a few typical New Mexico counting issues have arisen!).

The Republican candidate faces Dem Tom Udall in general election. The same poll that had Pearce leading Wilson also had Udall thrashing either Wilson or Pearce in the general.

There's a chance that NM Congressional delegation will be all Dem... not much of a chance, but a chance. All three House races are open seats - Wilson, Pearce, and Udall all vacated their House seats to run for Domenici's Senate seat. Most likely outcome: Pearce's House seat (NM2) stays Republican, Udall's House seat (NM3) stays Democratic. I'd like to believe that NM1 will go Democratic for the first time ever - the District was created in 1968, and has been Republican since then! Senate? Bingaman and Udall - both Dems!

Have a nice day.

1 comment:

  1. Heather's little miss nasty act didn't sit too well with the Repubs I think, or it could just be rural NM backlash at Albuquerque. I'm glad to finally have her out of office.