Saturday, June 7, 2008

Oops! My political insight fails again...

Not long ago I suggested that the pundits who cited Sen Clinton's strong showing in W.VA, PA, KY, etc., as evidence that Sen Obama would have problems in these states in general election ignored the fact that all the primary voters were Democrats, unlikely to defect to McCain.

I've now two sources who suggest my reading of the political winds is grossly erroneous:
1. A loyal reader - a supporter of Sen Clinton - sent me email with detailed argument outlining the grievances of Sen Clinton's supporters against Sen Obama;
2. The following blog article:
Angry Clinton Supporters Start Rallying for McCain Online
My deliberate avoidance of Democratic Presidential Primary campaign blinded me to the antagonism between the two camps.

My loyal reader cited my willingness to vote for convenient third party candidate in preference to Sen Clinton as an example of just what Sen Clinton's supporters might do as well if faced with prospect of Sen Obama's candidacy. I can't mount an effective argument against this use of me as an example - except to note that I am not a Democrat & have in the past voted for convenient third party candidate without offending my conscience. My assumption was that Democratic voters might stay home, but would likely not actively support McCain... I was wrong.

[Aside: loyal reader also noted that he'd been unable to post comment on this blog. Has anyone else experienced this problem?... (I note that those experiencing this problem will be unable to respond to the question - and that any responses in comments will tautologically be from folks who have no difficulty posting!)]

This is the second time in a week that my political insight has been falsified by data. I think maybe I should stick to trashing W and commenting on non-political news!

For what it's worth: I'll likely avoid the General Election Prez campaign, too - for fear that I'll find myself loathing Sen Obama, and again feeling compelled to pull the lever for a convenient third party candidate. (FYI: I've voted Libertarian & Green in the past.)

Note: I find this situation close to intolerable, and attributable solely to W. In the past I relished Prez election years - closely following the campaigns, keeping tabs on polls, etc. The end result of this diligence was often - as noted above - that I loathed both candidates by November & voted against 'em both. With W around I've not had this luxury, and so have been forced to ignore the campaigns. Kerry almost killed me - I did in fact loathe him by the time election day rolled around, believing that he'd run one of the most incompetent campaigns imaginable. It took some doing, but I was somehow able to swallow hard & vote for the major party candidate who wasn't W.

I'm feeling a bit more confident this time around. I believe that a one-eyed, gap-toothed, baby-eating ogre with halitosis can beat McCain - just as long as the ogre has "Democrat" stamped on the forehead! I am hence less worried about the prospect of voting convenient third party come November.

There are even times I feel I ought actively support McCain. I'd not wish W's mess on my worst enemy. Why bequeath it to a Democrat for whom I have any respect or sympathy? The prospect of bequeathing W's mess to McCain isn't all that intolerable: "Yeah, John, you go ahead & fix it!"... secure in the knowledge that 2012 would then be firmly in non-Republican hands!...

... then I snap out of it (so far, at least). "Another 4 years of Republican rule? AUGGH!" (Of course, with a Democratic veto-proof majority in both houses of Congress a McCain presidency might not be all that bad... Oops! Bad thoughts! Bad thoughts!!!)

Final note: IF major party candidate who isn't McCain LOSES in November, that candidate will be anathema to the Dems forever after... much as Kerry is today.

Have a nice day.

1 comment:

  1. Too many in politics cut their nose off to spite their face, case in point -- Ralph Nader. How much damage did W do because he drew in two closely contested elections those who might have made a difference. And there was a difference to be made, instead they threw their vote away. Those that stay home throw their voice away too, and can't complain about the type of government they get.