Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Checking on other market forecasters

Jim Cramer famously predicted,
"Brown in the Senate? That wrecks the 60-vote supermajority the Democrats have been counting on. It could spell the end for this almost year-long nightmare of a piece of healthcare legislation.

What does a Brown election mean larger than this? ...
More important, though, I think investors who are nervous about the dictatorship of the Pelosi proletariat will feel at ease, and we could have a gigantic rally off a Coakley loss and a Brown win.
First, I note that Mr. Cramer didn't provide a time frame...
BUT: today - the day after Brown's win over Coakley?
DJIA: down 1.14%
Nasdaq: down 1.26%
S&P 500: down 1.06%

So, if the market has a rally in June, does Mr. Cramer get to claim it's due to Brown's win?

... okay - I'll give him his call IF the market is up more than noise this Friday's close over last Friday's close.
Otherwise - I don't think so.

[Note: being generous to Mr. Cramer - if market closes Friday, 22 Jan, at or above 11,145, I'll grant him his rally. Being REALLY generous, I'd be inclined to grant him his rally if it closes at or above 10,926. Yes - there is some analysis behind these numbers. (Following my own advice: if DJIA closes at or above 11,145 this Friday, first thing Monday I'm calling my financial manager to GET OUT of stocks!)]

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