Monday, February 20, 2012

The Bond Vigilantes are coming! (... NOT!!!)

If we continue to run massive deficits, eventually we will be punished by the market: the cost of financing this debt will increase exponentially, driving up the cost of credit for everyone, leading to rampant hyper-inflation and effectively destroying our economy. The ONLY solution is to immediately and permanently reduce Government spending to eliminate the deficit - strict, Draconian austerity measures are needed NOW!
This, at least, is the current GOP economic orthodoxy.

Here, as reported by Dr. Krugman, are the facts:
Furthermore, bond markets keep refusing to cooperate. Even austerity’s star pupils, countries that, like Portugal and Ireland, have done everything that was demanded of them, still face sky-high borrowing costs. Why? Because spending cuts have deeply depressed their economies, undermining their tax bases to such an extent that the ratio of debt to G.D.P., the standard indicator of fiscal progress, is getting worse rather than better.

Meanwhile, countries that didn’t jump on the austerity train — most notably, Japan and the United States — continue to have very low borrowing costs, defying the dire predictions of fiscal hawks.
Current 30-year T-notes are yielding 3.161% - effectively a 35-year low! 10-year notes are at 2.01% - again, effectively a 50-year low!
[By way of comparison: during St. Reagan's glorious years, the lowest 30-year yield was 7.21%; the lowest 10-year yield was 7.23%... We paid a LOT more to finance the debt back in the days of St. Reagan!]

... then again, reality DOES have a liberal bias!

30-yr T-bill yields (1977-present):
10-yr T-bill yields (1962-present):[click on images to enlarge]

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