Saturday, March 26, 2016

A disturbing article: "Trump Will Become President"

Trump Will Become President, Says Extremely Accurate Statistician
His statistical model has only ever been wrong once in 104 years.

Helmut Norpoth, a professor of political science at Stony Brook University, has developed a statistical model that predicts a 97 percent to 99 percent chance that Trump will win the 2016 presidential election if he wins the Republican nomination...

Norpoth's model has correctly predicted the outcome of every single presidential election since 1912 – save one, the election of 1960, which some believe was rigged. It uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary coupled with electoral cycle patterns to determine the likely outcome of the general election.
I doubt that the model takes into account just how loathsome Trump is, and hope that this loathsomeness will upset purely statistical considerations.

1 comment:

  1. Our Republican friends tell us that the free market is the best way to predict election results, and the betting markets say Clinton has a 67.6% chance of becoming the next president while Trump has only a 19% chance.