Saturday, December 19, 2009

Checking the Buffoon's market advice

Where's the bottom???
Thursday, October 9, 2008
A very quick, back-of-the-envelope computation suggests that since the '70s, the largest percentage decline in DJIA has been just under 50% from previous peak.

Using this as a guideline, the bottom would seem to be around 6000.
We're at 8500 today.

The 50% bottom is the WORST since 1970.

The range seems to be 25% to 50%. (Again, these are very hasty, eye-balled figures!!!)
If you bet on 40%, that'd represent about 7000.
30%? About 8000.

This guidance has been provided FREE OF CHARGE... and is worth every penny!!!
So, where'd the current market cycle bottom-out?

$6440.08, in early March of this year.
I didn't do too badly!

If you'd decided to buy at $8K, you'd be up ~29% today (based on DJIA); if you'd waited for $7K, you'd be up 47%.
If you waited for my absolute bottom ($6K) - well, you're still waiting!

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