Magical thinking infects U.S. command in Iraq

I've previously noted W Administration's propensity for magical thinking, which has frequently implied a failure to plan for contingencies.

Rummy, asked what U.S. would do if Iraq formed an Iran-like Shi'ite theocracy, responded by saying something to effect, "We won't let that happen."

On Meet the Press, when asked what contingency planning was in place if things didn't go swimmingly, Cheney completely ignored the question, insisting instead that, "we'll be greeted as liberators."

Early in the campaign we heard over and over, "No plan survives first contact with the enemy."... with the clear implication that it was therefore pointless to plan!

The latest?

Shi'ite cleric ceasefire verdict due by Saturday
By Khaled Farhan, Reuters
20 Feb 2008
NAJAF, Iraq (Reuters) - Iraqi Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr will announce by midnight on Saturday whether his feared Mehdi Army is to extend a six-month ceasefire, an aide said on Wednesday.

... and if al-Sadr does NOT extend the ceasefire? Brace yourself:

"We'll deal with the contingencies of the 'what if' when it occurs," U.S. military spokesman Rear Admiral Greg Smith told reporters on Wednesday. "As of today the ceasefire remains in place and we would hope and expect it to continue."

... we would hope???

Yes, I'm sure we would hope al Sadr extends it... but shouldn't we plan for the possibility that he doesn't, as opposed to, "We'll deal with the contingencies of the 'what if' when it occurs".

We've been dealing with contingencies when they occur since before we invaded. This approach hasn't worked all that well so far. Quoting Burt Bacharach:

Wishing and hoping and thinking and praying
... won't get you into his arms

Stop the madness!