I did my celebrating early

A friend originally from Dublin is in the hospital.
I visited him at 5 p.m. local time = midnight in Dublin.

Me & The Whiners

... "We've got diverticulitis."

... which is partial explanation for light posting.
... but more pertinent reasons are
- too much college football
- too little patience with GOP whining

Fringe politics

The Tea Party crowd seem to be taking over the GOP... and generating much enthusiasm, which could well translate into electoral success in 2010.

How 'bout the left fringe of the Democratic Party - we so-called, and self-identified Progressives - try something similar? Stage rallies, get VOCAL... No - not with intent to take over the Dem Party (tho' this might not be a bad thing), but to give the so-called, self-identified "Independents" a choice, and maybe generate some enthusiasm for 2010 mid-terms.

As it stands there seems to be no Democratic consensus, on anything. We're all too rational, too cerebral to get excited. Obama's policies - even his rhetoric - do not inspire a repeat of 2008.
To counter the strident voices of the wing-nut Right requires a vocal alternative.
Many of us are trying... but we are too polite, and too disinterested. We've conceded, accepting that our voices are too quiet to matter.
Why?

My preference? Mimic the Tea Party crowd's very vocal insanity with our own! - Yes, we will seem unduly strident, but shrill stridency is required!

Please, loyal readers, lift up your voices!
- Sing a song!

Best of the Season to y'all...

... and here's hoping the New Year brings an abundance of happiness and good fortune!

Probably people-of-color the gov't forced lenders to service!

Anaheim mall defaults on $210 million debt

As I understand it, the conservative narrative regarding the foreclosure crisis is that it's all the government's fault for forcing lenders to give money to ne'er-do-wells who could never repay. Uppity poor white trash & people of color.
I'm curious to see how commercial foreclosures will be woven into this narrative.

Meanwhile, this is a fun contrast:

Banks Bundled Bad Debt, Bet Against It and Won
By GRETCHEN MORGENSON and LOUISE STORY, NYT
Published: December 23, 2009
In late October 2007, as the financial markets were starting to come unglued, a Goldman Sachs trader, Jonathan M. Egol, received very good news. At 37, he was named a managing director at the firm.

Mr. Egol, a Princeton graduate, had risen to prominence inside the bank by creating mortgage-related securities, named Abacus, that were at first intended to protect Goldman from investment losses if the housing market collapsed. As the market soured, Goldman created even more of these securities, enabling it to pocket huge profits.

Goldman’s own clients who bought them, however, were less fortunate.

Pension funds and insurance companies lost billions of dollars on securities that they believed were solid investments, according to former Goldman employees with direct knowledge of the deals who asked not to be identified because they have confidentiality agreements with the firm.
[emphasis added]

"Heads I win, Tails you lose!"

Again - I think the Tea Party anti-biz message could be tweaked to reflect legitimate anger at Wall Street and its Government enablers. From there, little logic is needed to demand MORE regulation of financial markets...
I'll be sending a few emails this evening.

Common ground?

A few posts back I supported Well-armed Lamb's call for a nation-wide general strike.

Seems this may be an opportunity to find common ground with the Tea Party crowd (and take advantage of their organizational skills!).
From TPM:

Tea Partiers' Next Target: American Business?
... The Tea Party Patriots group is planning a "National Day of Strike" for Jan. 20, one year to the day after President Obama's inauguration. The goal of the strike, according to the website where it's being planned, is to "financially cripple" the companies across America the group says are "backing the leftist agenda" and "funding socialism."

Tho' I'm not sure just why the Tea Partiers want to bring down the U.S. economy, I nevertheless support the idea of a nation-wide "day of prayer and fasting" (i.e., a general strike). We can let them plan it, then co-opt the message! (Heck! To the extent that the Tea Partiers anti-biz message could be modified to highlight the failures of Obama's economic team, I'd even be okay with letting the Tea Partiers own at least part of the message!)

As The Well-Armed Lamb states:

"... let's organize a nation-wide general STRIKE. There is no other act available to a civic population to bring about the halt to objectionable State policies and practices."

Here we go again

From Think Progress, last week:

Kristol: Obama’s Nobel Speech ‘Lays The Predicate For The Legitimate Use Of Force’ Against Iran

From ThinkProgress, yesterday:

Bolton: Strike On Iran Is No Problem As Long As It’s Accompanied By A ‘Campaign Of Public Diplomacy’

From NYT Op-Ed today:

There’s Only One Way to Stop Iran
By ALAN J. KUPERMAN
... Since peaceful carrots and sticks cannot work, and an invasion would be foolhardy, the United States faces a stark choice: military air strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities or acquiescence to Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons.
...
As for knocking out its nuclear plants, admittedly, aerial bombing might not work.
...
But history suggests that military strikes could work.
...

The war-drums are beating.

With every opinion piece advocating military action against Iran, the idea becomes less abhorrent, more palatable.

What is it about the Right that makes 'em cherish war?

Mutual belligerence hasn't been working all that well, and the Right's continuing threats against Iran provide a very convenient justification to Iran for its own continued belligerence.
Maybe it's time to try something different.

I note that Kuperman's op-ed presents a nice example of a false dichotomy, as if 'acquiescence' or military action were the only two alternatives... and the use of the word 'acquiescence' is loaded with wimpy connotations! - sort of like 'appeasement'.
How 'bout an alternative along the lines of 'ignore Iran'... provide the Iranian regime with no plausible justification for belligerence towards the West. We neither offer carrots nor threaten sticks.

The war-mongers must be silenced now!

Back on the campaign trail!

Spent the better part of Wednesday updating a donor database - correcting addresses, merging duplicate records.

I note that none of my loyal readers was impacted... hmmm: come to think of it, I didn't check to see if any of my loyal readers were in the database!

Politics: sadly, it's all about $$$.

"Do you miss W?"

This question was recently asked of me by one of my more conservative friends.

Sadly, my answer was, "What's to miss? Obama's pursuing most all W's policies!"

I'm still waiting for the 'change'.

Not quite, but almost...

Christmas is not quite my least favorite holiday... but it's close!

Me? Believe it or not, I have theological objections.
Worship of the Baby Jesus seems inappropriate.
Were I a believer, I'd be a heretical "Adoptionist", accepting G-d's proclamation at the Baptism:
"You are my Son, today I have begotten you."
(Luke 3:22 - an original reading)

I'll go further: anyone who claims to understand the Doctrine of the Trinity is lying.

For me, Easter is THE Christian holiday - not Christmas.

The Christmas stories in the Gospels - only 2 of 'em - are easily explained as answers to questions early believers must have asked: when and where was Jesus born? Didn't anyone notice he was the Son of God at the time???

Somehow the notion of G-d sucking on Mary's tit just isn't appropriate.

That said, the secular version of Xmas that has evolved in the USA is not too hard to take: give & receive gifts, spend time with family & friends.

I'll still sing Xmas carols with my church choir on Xmas eve... but were it not for the purely secular connotations of the holiday, I'd have a hard time reconciling this performance with my conscience.

cooking advice: hard-boiled eggs

Yes, really.

First: you do NOT have to pre-heat the microwave!

Okay, here's the real advice:
I use 'cold water' method for boiling eggs: put eggs in cold water, bring to boil. Turn heat off. Let 'em sit in heated - but cooling - water for 20 mins.

Here's the real advice: cool eggs in fridge.
Do NOT put eggs in water to cool!!!
(... the aqueous environment makes 'em difficult to peel - the water somehow permeates the shell.)
Wait a while.
When eggs are cooled, peel shell from thick end
(no - I don't know why this works better, but it does).

Yes - only a guy needs directions on 'how to boil an egg'.

Checking the Buffoon's market advice

Where's the bottom???
Thursday, October 9, 2008
A very quick, back-of-the-envelope computation suggests that since the '70s, the largest percentage decline in DJIA has been just under 50% from previous peak.

Using this as a guideline, the bottom would seem to be around 6000.
We're at 8500 today.

The 50% bottom is the WORST since 1970.

The range seems to be 25% to 50%. (Again, these are very hasty, eye-balled figures!!!)
If you bet on 40%, that'd represent about 7000.
30%? About 8000.

This guidance has been provided FREE OF CHARGE... and is worth every penny!!!

So, where'd the current market cycle bottom-out?

$6440.08, in early March of this year.
I didn't do too badly!

If you'd decided to buy at $8K, you'd be up ~29% today (based on DJIA); if you'd waited for $7K, you'd be up 47%.
If you waited for my absolute bottom ($6K) - well, you're still waiting!

The Buffoon's forecasting failure!

Back in February I forecast 84 bank failures in 2009.
Whoops! - missed it.

Yesterday:

Regulators shutter 2 big Calif. banks, 5 others
By MARCY GORDON, AP Business Writer
Fri Dec 18
WASHINGTON – Regulators on Friday shut down two big California banks, as well as banks in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Michigan and Illinois, bringing to 140 the number of U.S. banks brought down this year by the weak economy and mounting loan defaults.
[emphasis added]

In my last paying job I was an economic forecaster - and I was the pessimistic one in my group!

aside: I am one of the few forecasters who will voluntarily let you know how I've performed. No - I do not have a sterling record about which to brag, but I am honest!
[I probably oughta revisit my stock market calls sometime soon...]

National day of prayer & fasting

Well-armed Lamb suggests a general strike:

If you wanna change things, we need to organize, and organize around a specific act. So let's organize a nation-wide general STRIKE. There is no other act available to a civic population to bring about the halt to objectionable State policies and practices.

That is, for 24 hours, nothing moves, except vital emergency/life-saving equipment. The disaffected populace then uses the ensuing chaos to leverage our/its democratic demands.

PrivateBuffoon hereby goes on record in support of this proposal.

So: any ideas how to promote this call-to-action?

aside: from the movie Gandhi:

GANDHI: The law is due to take effect from April sixth.
I want to call on the nation to make that a day of prayer and fasting.
...
JINNAH: You mean a general strike?

GANDHI: I mean a day of prayer and fasting.
But of course no work could be done - no buses, no trains, no factories, no administration. The country would stop.

personal: i'm having a good time!

i'm building my own xmas cards.
they feature Illustrations by John Leech from the first edition of Dickens's A Christmas Carol (Dec, 1843).

there are two (2) texts for "the message".
One is an "Ultra-Condensed" version of A Christmas Carol:

Ebenezer Scrooge: Bah, humbug. You'll work thirty-eight hours on Christmas Day, keep the heat at five degrees, and like it.

Ghost of Jacob Marley: Ebenezer Scrooge, three ghosts of Christmas will come and tell you you're mean.

Three Ghosts of Christmas: You're mean.

Ebenezer Scrooge: At last, I have seen the light. Let's dance in the streets.
Have some money.
[Ultra-Condensed "A Christmas Carol"]

The other text for "the message" is from Psalm 100:

Make a joyful noise to the LORD, all the earth!
Serve the LORD with gladness!
Come into his presence with singing!
Know that the LORD, he is God!
It is he who made us, and we are his;
we are his people, and the sheep of his pasture.

MS Word's Papyrus font is very effective.

Who gets which text depends on my perception of their religious convictions.

Oh, good - I'm not alone

Dear President Obama
Dear President Obama,

I just got an email from you asking me to contact my Senators to vote for your piece of crap health care “reform” bill.

The link to reply was –like your administration – defective and so here I am replying through your website and putting it up on my blog for the world to read if they care to....

I am just one of a vast number of disillusioned and furious progressives you have managed to alienate in less than a year. These people like me voted for you, donated to your campaign and worked for your election because we wanted real change. You have bitterly disappointed us.
[... the letter goes on...]

... but wait! - there's more:

Keith Olbermann eviscerates Obama, Reid & US Senate over health care reform fiasco

... and finally:

Katrina Vanden Heuvel: Dem base is "angry, infuriated, heartbroken - this is not the 'change' we voted for."

It's nice to not be alone.

my letter to Senator Tom Udall

Senator Tom Udall
110 Hart Senate Office Bldg
Washington, DC 20510

Senator Udall:

As stated previously, your seniors in the Senate are failing you – and the country. Sen. Lieberman (I-CT) has proven time and again that he cannot be trusted, yet the Democratic Senate leadership continues to “deal” with him. Why?

Q: What has been the effect of Senator Reid’s caving to Senator Lieberman?
A: Others in your caucus - e.g., Sen. Nelson - feel free to march to a different drummer with no fear of repercussions!

The public - the folks who voted in a solidly Democratic Congress – are FOR a radical overhaul of the healthcare system – at least to the extent that a bona fide, robust 'public option' constitutes a 'radical overhaul'.

Please – take the lead! – organize your fellow freshmen Democratic Senators (including the class of ’06… and maybe the class of ’04). Present a united front demanding Senator Lieberman’s expulsion from your caucus, and his removal from positions of leadership within the Senate.
Make it clear that failure to support genuine reform will not be tolerated.

You may lose the battle – but if you stick to your guns, the war could be yours!

Sincerely,

Why do I keep flagellating myself?

light posting: an apologia

apologia: a defense especially of one's opinions, position, or actions.
[Miriam-Webster online dictionary]

It's also convenient to use the word in the sense of "apology".

To maintain mental health, I've chosen to ignore the world for a few days. I'm happier not paying attention.
Posting - working myself up into verbose rage - would require energy I simply don't have at the moment.

My apologies to loyal readers.
Check back later.

p.s. I was really hoping my Terminator reference would find its way into the blogosphere.
Didn't happen.

You're kidding, right?

"... the Senate is widely considered to be the greatest deliberative body in the world."
[Senate promo; emphasis added]

I don't think I want to look at the 2nd best!

The Terminator

"Listen, and understand. That terminator is out there. It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever..."

I am so sick of these headlines!

BREAKING: Harry Reid caves to Lieberman/White House, kill Medicare buy-in and public option

Ah, yes: Dems CAVE... again!

FYI: for the past hour I've been sending emails to Senate Dem "leadership" with my "deal" for Senator Lieberman (see below).
Seems I was too late.

time for more letters?

Huff Post: Second source confirms Rahm personally pressed Reid to cut deal with Lieberman

Seems WH has denied pressuing Reid to reach a deal with Lieberman, and that denial is looking shakier by the minute.

But: a deal with Lieberman???
The only deal I'd like to see would have terms something like...
Step 1:
- a) Lieberman stripped of his Committee Chairmanship immediately
- b) Lieberman kicked out of Dem caucus immediately
Step 2:
- a) Dems promise to consider re-admitting Joe IF he henceforth and forevermore supports any and all Dem proposals on healthcare... up to and including final vote on final bill
- b) IF Joe lives up to his end of the bargain, THEN Dems re-admit him to their caucus.
Step 3: Kiss that chairmanship good-bye, Joe... Unless and until you prove yourself a loyal Dem over the next 12 months - supporting, vocally and vociferously, any and all Dem initiatives.
Maybe when 112th Congress is seated your chairmanship will be reconsidered... Maybe... IF you behave yourself in the meantime.

If healthcare reform fails for lack of 60 votes, Reid, DSCC, and DNC make it their over-riding objective to let the country know that Joe Lieberman (I-CT) is the single person responsible for the failure.

Bye-bye, Joe.

How many are left?

AP source: Al-Qaida operative killed by US missile

This guy was just an 'operative', not a big-shot.

We've been killing bad guys for 8 years now.
Has anyone noticed: there are just as many bad guys now as when we started?

Stop the madness!

The first surgee?

This is from my USMC bud's first "Report from Afghanistan".

Health Insurance: a personal story

Recently I was compelled to seek health insurance on the open market. With cardiac disease, high cholesterol, & hypertension, this proved somewhat problematic for me.

Turns out, New Mexico has a health insurance "pool", New Mexico Health Insurance Alliance - sort of "public option, lite" - with choice of 3 carriers (Presbyterian, Lovelace, Blue Cross/Blue Shield). No health questions - they are required to accept everyone, with the single caveat that the individual must have been continuously covered for preceding 18 months (there's a 63-day grace period).

It's not cheap, but it IS available! - and the coverage ain't half bad. (... and for what it doesn't cover, or when/if the prescription benefit runs out - $5k/year - there's a second pool for which NMHIA members automatically qualify.)

For a fun, if more-than-slightly depressing, read on the history of "universal health coverage" in the U.S., see Pre-existing condition in 7 Dec 2009 edition of The New Yorker.

A fun read from"The Rant" by Tom Degan: Jammin' with the Dickster

"The Rant" by Tom Degan: Jammin' with the Dickster

[no, I have no shame - I'm more than happy to simply link to someone else's post, just so's I can claim I posted today! On the bright side: it IS a fun read!]

just for fun

My USMC reservist bud is a Marine E-7: Gunnery Sergeant.

The only two mental-models I have for Marine Gunnery Sergeants are these guys:

Clint Eastwood as Gunnery Sergeant Thomas Highway in the 1986 film Heartbreak Ridge

...and:

Gunnery Sgt. R. Lee Ermey, currently hosting the History Channel's Lock and Load

Neither of these helps me understand my friend!

From a trusted correspondent

My USMC reservist bud is now at Camp Dwyer, Afghanistan. [31°7'N 64°12'E]
We commenced our snailmail communication while he was still in the States. He being one of the most conservative people I know, and I being one of the most liberal people he knows, our correspondence frequently touches on politics and policy. As you may have guessed, he's not a big fan of govt involvement in health insurance... but he's open-minded enough to make an argument:

"I think I would have more respect for the Dems if they could point to ONE country or state whose system they like. Aren't there >50 reasonably civilized countries that have largely government run plans (though vastly different in detail)? Can't we point to ONE that we like, or perhaps a few that we want to pick features from? My faith that, say, the Netherlands has improved and learned over the years is much greater than that, say, Chuck Shumer will invent something one Thursday night that is better than anything anyone else in the world has come up with in the past 50 years."

I have to agree with him.

Furthermore, this Dem failure to aggressively, adamantly adopt some existing alternative, and promote it to the hilt, seems a singular strategic blunder.
What we'll end up with is a horrid patchwork that will not solve the core problem - the core problem being that health insurance is priced out of range for a large number of our fellow citizens... and is getting more expensive by the minute!... Somehow the 'richest country in the world' is happy to let significant numbers of its citizens die rather than get timely, high-quality medical care.

I don't understand it.

Staying on message... NOT!

A week ago our President stated:

"First, we will pursue a military strategy that will break the Taliban's momentum and increase Afghanistan's capacity over the next 18 months.
...
But taken together, these additional American and international troops will allow us to accelerate handing over responsibility to Afghan forces, and allow us to begin the transfer of our forces out of Afghanistan in July of 2011.
[emphasis added]

This timeline was widely interpreted as a "deadline" for U.S. involvement in Afghanistan.

What have we heard in the past week from our President's TEAM?
SecDef Gates:

"Quite frankly, I detest the phrase exit strategy," US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said, promising "a narrow focus" on routing al-Qaeda with "observable progress on clear objectives."

"What is essential -- for our national security -- is that we have two long-term partners in Afghanistan and Pakistan," he said.
[Gates: no deadline for US pullout from Afghanistan, 3 Dec 2009]

SoS Clinton:

"I do not believe we have locked ourselves into leaving," said Clinton, who added the goal was "to signal very clearly to all audiences that the United States is not interested in occupying Afghanistan."
[ibid.]

If memory serves, the Obama campaign was lauded as a model of consistent public communications - no leaks, everyone on message all the time.

What happened?

I'm all for spirited policy discussions, disagreements, alternative points of view... in White House policy meetings!
Once the President announces a policy, I sort of expect the Administration will promote it without hedging.
Back in the biz world this was called "disagree and commit".

If Obama can't control his Cabinet, he's doomed.

writin' letters...

... light posting recently - I've been writin' letters.
... to Obama (2), DNC (1), Sen McCain (1), Gen McChrystal (2), and my GySgt Marine bud.

... that and nothing jumps out at me from the headlines.

... well, maybe these upcoming SCOTUS cases:

Supreme Court takes up 'honest services,' or anti-corruption, law

Recall: I was an Enron junkie. Not knowing the law doesn't prevent me from getting excited about apparent corporate malfeasance.

7 Dec...

Attack on Pearl Harbor
The attack on Pearl Harbor (or Hawaii Operation, Operation Z, as it was called by the Japanese Imperial General Headquarters) was an unannounced military strike conducted by the Japanese navy against the United States naval base at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii on the morning of December 7, 1941. It resulted in the United States entry into World War II. The attack was intended as a preventive action to keep the U.S. Pacific Fleet from influencing the war the Empire of Japan was planning in Southeast Asia against Britain and the Netherlands, as well as the U.S. in the Philippines.
[Wikipedia entry]

Note: "The attack was intended as a preventive action to keep the U.S. Pacific Fleet from influencing the war the Empire of Japan was planning in Southeast Asia..."

Pre-emptive strikes don't seem to work all that well!
Would that we would learn this lesson.

Just for fun: my letter to Senator McCain

Senator John McCain
241 Russell Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510

Senator McCain:

Recall, during the second Presidential debate in 2008 you declared,

"I'll get Osama bin Laden, my friends. I'll get him. I know how to get him. I'll get him no matter what and I know how to do it."

A recent AP headline reads, "White House still lacks solid intel on bin Laden".

Have you volunteered to help our intelligence community locate bin Laden?
If not, why not???

I note that some might construe your failure to share your certain knowledge with our intelligence community as tantamount to giving aid and comfort to the enemy.

Again, if you have not shared your knowledge and wisdom regarding capturing bin Laden with our intelligence community, why not?

Sincerely,

Feel free to copy/paste into your own letter to Senator McCain.

Back on the campaign trail!

On Saturday I worked on an Excel spreadsheet containing NM1 (Heinrich) donor records - cleaning it up a bit: eliminating duplicates, merging husband/wife records, correcting case (e.g., "john smith" -> "John Smith").

Next few weeks promise still more work along these lines, including some online database training.

Ah... it's good to feel useful again!

Have they asked John McCain?

White House still lacks solid intel on bin Laden
By ROBERT BURNS, AP National Security Writer
6 Dec 2009
WASHINGTON – Osama bin Laden may be slipping back and forth from Pakistan to Afghanistan. Or the U.S. might not have a clue, more than eight years after the al-Qaida leader masterminded the terrorist attacks on America.

Recall:

During the second Presidential Debate of 2008, Senator McCain declared:

"I'll get Osama bin Laden, my friends. I'll get him. I know how to get him.

I'll get him no matter what and I know how to do it."
[emphasis added]

So - have our intel folks asked John McCain how to get bin Laden?
Has McCain called Obama to impart his wisdom?

Suggestions?

Most recent polling & politics news suggests that...
- 1) TeaBaggers are ginned up for 2010
- 2) Dems aren't

I'm not particularly crazy about prospect of Republicans qua TeaBaggers taking over Congress in 2010.

Any ideas how to get run-of-the-mill Dems excited???
[fyi: if you answer, 'yes' - don't tell me! - tell DNC!!!]

If you've got spare $$$...

... you might consider sending some to these folks:

Glenn Beck-Inspired Tea Party Candidates Step Up To Oust Veteran GOP Lawmakers
Glenn Beck, who has waged a conspiratorial, hateful campaign against liberals and his other political enemies all year, has been galvanizing his supporters to run for office. Today, conservative activist Eric Forcade announced that he is running in the Republican primary to unseat longtime Rep. C.W. Bill Young (R-FL). In explaing his reason for running, Forcade said he was inspired by the “values that have been popularized by Glenn Beck.”
...
Phil Troyer, an attorney and former staffer to Republican Sens. Dan Coats (R-IN) and Richard Lugar (R-IN), is challenged incumbent Rep. Mark Souder (R-IN). An avid tea party supporter, Troyer has attacked Souder as a “big spending liberal.” Rachel Grubb, who is involved with Beck’s 9/12 project, is also challenging Souder.

Matt Sakalosky, a businessman who is a member of Beck’s 9/12 project, is challenging Rep. Lee Terry (R-NE).
...
Liz Lauber, a former aide to tea party leader and corporate lobbyist Dick Armey, is challenging Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO).
...
[emphasis added]

There were more worthy challengers listed in the Think Progress post - all needing $$$ to succeed against RINO incumbents.
Let's help 'em!

Lessons learned from movies

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia"...
[The Princess Bride (1987)]

an Xmas gift suggestion

Leatherbound Pocket-Size US Constitution

Carry it with you, keep it on your desk or bedside table, and be proud. Bound in soft black calfskin, pages edged in gold, this little book includes the complete US Constitution and other documents vital to our history, our democracy, and recent Supreme Court decisions: the Bill of Rights (and every constitutional amendment to the present day), Declaration of Independence, Articles of Confederation, and more. 192 pages, just 2 ¾" x 3 ¾".

... and, YES: I've got one!

Two letters to General McChrystal

Letter #1:

To: General Stanley A. McChrystal
ISAF
Kabul, Afghanistan
APO 09356

Subj: “Helpful Hints to Hopeful Heroes” : Training Afghan forces

Sir:
To succeed in training Afghan forces you may want to consider three suggestions:

Suggestion #1: Don't focus solely on military training.
Drill, weapons training, strategy & tactics: all are necessary, but none is sufficient.

Rather, include a rather large dose of Afghan history.

My guess is that one objective of training Afghan forces is to provide a nucleus for an Afghan national identity. If this be true, then Afghan forces need to have some sense that the country they're being trained to defend is worth defending.

Feed them large doses of Afghan history, focusing on brave stands made by Afghan fighters against enemies, foreign and domestic. Give them at least a hint that Afghanistan has a proud history, and a proud military history - a tradition which they are fighting to preserve and extend.

Suggestion #2: Adapt the military training to their strengths. I suspect history suggests that Afghan military strength, both in the past and today, is in the area of guerilla warfare - not standard set-piece battles with complex battlefield evolution of forces.

I note that the U.S. military is NOT the best organization to train another in the effective use of non-standard tactics... BUT: if the training does not take into account this reality, I'm not hopeful for success.

How can non-standard guerilla tactics be employed by the state to defeat guerilla enemies? Elements of U.S. counter-insurgency doctrine certainly have a bearing on this question... but I'd bet we could also learn a LOT from our Afghan allies!

Suggestion #3: Engage Afghan officers in the design of ALL training. If we view ourselves as the sole 'experts', there only to impart our precious knowledge to the heathen, we will fail.

I note that in 1975 my Army Basic Training included at least a few days of classroom instruction on “The History of the U.S. Army.” I learned who Baron von Steuben was. I assume the intent was to instill in us – raw recruits – a sense that we were continuing a long-standing tradition of service to our country, and to convince us that our voluntary service was at heart patriotic.
This same goal ought be accommodated within whatever training the U.S. military delivers to our Afghan allies.

Finally, emphasize that the Taliban are, in fact, foreign enemies. During their rule of Afghanistan they were notably an instrument of the Saudis, even to the extent of adopting the particularly Saudi institution of “Committee for the Propagation of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice”. The Taliban’s religious zeal and exclusivity are NOT based on any Afghan precedent, but have been imported by Saudi – Wahabbist – zealots.

I would be more than happy to provide an outline of the non-military curriculum outlined above.
Just ask!

My motivation? I would prefer to see my country succeed in Afghanistan.
Nothing more, nothing less.

Sincerely,

Note: the subject, "Helpful hints to hopeful heroes", is taken from General George S. Patton's unpublished memoirs.

Letter #2:

To: General Stanley A. McChrystal
ISAF
Kabul, Afghanistan
APO 09356

Subj: “Helpful Hints to Hopeful Heroes” : Afghanistan’s only cash crop

Sir:
A previous note included three more-or-less non-controversial suggestions regarding the training of Afghan forces.
This note will be somewhat more controversial.

Afghanistan has exactly ONE (1) cash crop: opium.
Promote it! Tax it!!!

The status quo – in which we criminalize opium production – only serves our enemies. Both the Taliban and non-governmental warlords profit from the opium trade, at our expense.
It is a no-win situation.

Encourage opium production, and co-opt the warlords who now control the trade into the central government. Make it a condition of their trade that they actively support the Karzai government.
Appoint them as provincial leaders.
Effectively legalize the opium trade.

Again: opium is Afghanistan’s ONLY cash crop.
This could change in the future, but today we are dealing with today’s here-and-now.

Yes – this policy change could well kill your military career… BUT: it just might rescue Afghanistan from a descent into lawlessness that dwarfs that of the early 1990s.

As it stands, the opium trade benefits only our enemies.
Can you argue that pragmatism in this case trumps ideology?

Sincerely,

Can pragmatism trump ideology? Probably not... but if we continue to adhere to the ideologically-driven eradication of the opium trade, we have no hope.

Okay - I'll accept the challenge

Though less than tickled with Obama's decision to send another 30K troops to Afghanistan, in part to train Afghan forces, well - I'll view it as a challenge.
How can training Afghan forces best be accomplished?

As you may have guessed, I have a couple of suggestions.

Suggestion #1: Don't focus solely on military training. Drill, weapons training, strategy & tactics: all are necessary, but not sufficient.
Rather, include a rather large dose of history. My guess is that one objective of training Afghan forces is to provide a nucleus for an Afghan national identity. If this be true, then Afghan forces need to have some sense that the country they're being trained to defend is worth defending. I'd feed 'em large doses of Afghan history, focusing on brave stands made by Afghan fighters against enemies, foreign and domestic. Give 'em at least a hint that Afghanistan has a proud history, and a proud military history - a tradition which they are fighting to preserve and extend.

Suggestion #2: Adapt the military training to their strengths. I suspect that both ancient and modern history will suggest that Afghan military strength, both in the past and today, is in the area of guerilla warfare - not standard set-piece battles with complex battlefield evolution of forces. I note that the U.S. military is NOT the best organization to train another in the effective use of non-standard tactics... BUT: if the training does not take into account this reality, I'm not hopeful for success. How can non-standard guerilla tactics be employed by the state to defeat guerilla enemies? Elements of U.S. counter-insurgency doctrine certainly have a bearing on this question... but I'd bet we could also learn a LOT from our Afghan allies!

Me? I'd recommend engaging Afghan officers in the design of ALL training. If we view ourselves as the sole 'experts', there only to impart our precious knowledge to the heathen, we will fail.

Okay - this is a better response...

... and closer to my gut... I just didn't have the guts to say it!
In response to tonight's Speech, Tom Degan over at "The Rant" by Tom Degan: The Lost Lessons of History comes a lot closer to the truth:

The irony underlying this entire mess is the fact that Obama had a tiny window of opportunity during his first week or so in office where he could have ended this thing with the stroke of a pen. Remember, this was not his war. The only reason we invaded Afghanistan to begin with (on the surface, at least) was to kill or capture Osama bin Ladin, mastermind of the 9/11 attacks - that was it. When every opportunity to do so had been badly blundered due to the incompetence of George W. Bush and company, they changed the nature of the mission for no other reason than to save their hideous faces. It had nothing to do with bin Ladin, they assured us. It was all about "nation building". Nation building!

And that is where we find ourselves at the miserable present. Before the sun sets this afternoon, another American kid (or more) will be sacrificed on the alter of stupidity for no other reason than to prop up a government which has been identified by the organization, Transparency International, as the second most corrupt in the world. Congratulations to Somalia for taking home the gold. Whoopee!

There's more... lots more! - I grabbed above from the middle of the post!

My first visit...

to fafblog.
Worth the trip:

Victory Science
Let us never forget just what's at stake in the war in Afghanistan: nothing less than the success of the war in Afghanistan. This war may be a mistake, a blood-soaked blunder, an unholy charnel house mindlessly consuming the bodies and souls of untold thousands, an open sore on the pockmarked face of history and an abomination before the sight of God and men, but it is first and foremost a war, and wars must be won. If the United States doesn't win this war, then will it not lose it? And if the United States loses this war, then won't the Unites States have lost it? And if the United States has lost this war, will that not then make the United States a kind of thing that loses wars? And then where would we be?

There's more - go visit!

What others have said...

... no, not about Obama's speech - but about what it might really take to "win" in Afghanistan, and about making courageous choices.

I'll start with courageous choices. This first bit quoted in The NY Reviw of Books review of The Hawk and the Dove: Paul Nitze, George Kennan, and the History of the Cold War. Quoting George Kennan, during testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee regarding Vietnam:

"There is more respect to be won in the opinion of this world by resolute and courageous liquidation of unsound positions than by the most stubborn pursuit of extravagant or unpromising objectives."

Wish Obama had taken the hint!

On current Afghanistan mess: From Talk of the Town section of recent New Yorker:

Would even forty thousand additional troops suffice for anything resembling the ambitious nation-building program that General Stanley McChrystal, the top military commander in Afghanistan, has proposed? (Counterinsurgency theory suggests that it would take moe than ten times that many...)
[emphasis added]

Recall PM's contribution to this discussion: even 400K troops might not be sufficient!

So, tell me again, Mr. President... what are we accomplishing with 30,000 more troops???

... OOPS! - I almost forgot: from Politico:

Cheney was asked if he thinks the Bush administration bears any responsibility for the disintegration of Afghanistan because of the attention and resources that were diverted to Iraq. “I basically don’t,” he replied without elaborating.
[emphasis added]

I note that the article suggests the interviewer did NOT ATTEMPT to get the former Wyoming congressman to elaborate!

My USMC reservist bud is off to Afghanistan

Just about the same time Obama was addressing the crowd at West Point, my former colleague & USMC reservist bud was boarding a plane bound for Kuwait - the way-station on the way to Afghanistan, where he will be "liaison officer from the Marine Corps Center for Lessons Learned to Regimental Combat Team 7, the Marine Corps’ main ground combat element in Afghanistan." [for info, see 7th Marine Regiment (United States)]

A comment from his first weekly report:

Interestingly, the flight will be boarding during the president’s speech, so whatever his new policy is, I may be the first either to enforce or violate it.

I anticipate regular "updates from the front" from this fellow - if any contain gems of wisdom or military humor worth sharing, I'll post 'em here!

Obama's speech... (yes, I watched it)

Well... if you're going to try to make a case for committing more troops, I suppose you could do worse...

... that said, I can't truthfully say I'm jumping up and down with excitement at any continuing U.S. military role in the region.

I enjoyed the none-too-subtle jabs at the previous administration for leaving us with the the Afghan mess.
I enjoyed being reminded - explicitly - that when we first sent troops to Afghanistan in response to 9/11, we were a united country and had the world's support. Unsaid but implied: W squandered this unity and near-universal support.

Having listened to the speech, can I answer the question, "Why are we sending 30K more troops?" ?
No.

On the bright side, there were no references to building a bright-beacon bastion of liberal democracy in south-central Asia!

Did Obama convince anyone?
I doubt it.
Did he at least manage to silence his right-wing critics?
Not sure... but this may have been the most successful part of the speech: anticipating the right-wing, war-mongering, chicken-hawk criticisms and addressing them, one 'option' at a time.