Forecasters: U.S. in 14 month recession
Regular readers ought know my opinion of expert forecasters - I once was among 'em!
Whence 14 months? My bet is heavy on fairly brain-dead analysis of past biz cycles, perhaps augmented by less-than-deep analysis of "fundamentals"... Tho' even back-of-the-envelope calculation would suggest that current mess is an "upper tail" event: guessing relatively long duration takes little imagination.
It takes a bit of calculus to do this - but only a bit.
Again: these guys ain't any smarter than us... they just have $$$.
p.s. On the bright side - supposing 14 months to be semi-accurate, this fits well with a tried-and-true "performance evaluation" strategy: start fires in odd quarters, put 'em out in even quarters.
This strategy ensures that semi-annual "performance reviews" will provide the opportunity to brag about putting out fires!
In Prez-elect Obama's case, an economic recovery beginning just over a year from now will give him lots of brownie points for the 2012 election...
It'll also help Senate & Congressional Dems in 2010!
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