"Choices under Uncertainty"

That's part of the subtitle of my favorite book on decision analysis:

Decision Analysis:Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty,
by Howard Raiffa

There are lots of books out there with similar titles.

What's more, these books are used in similarly-titled university courses - many of them taught at leading business schools! (Howard Raiffa taught at the Harvard Business School.)
You'd think that SecTreas Paulson & our MBA President would have been exposed to some of this stuff during their academic careers.

The techniques presented in these books and classes are well-known, intellectually robust, and effective.
(Yes, SecTreas Paulson, there are recipes to follow to help draft a playbook when "responding to turmoil we have never faced".)

Why is this fairly straight-forward technology not being used?

Stop the madness!