Monday, October 26, 2009

Statistics in the news!

AP IMPACT: Statisticians reject global cooling
By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer
26 Oct 2009
WASHINGTON – Have you heard that the world is now cooling instead of warming? You may have seen some news reports on the Internet or heard about it from a provocative new book.

Only one problem: It's not true, according to several independent statisticians who analyzed temperature data for The Associated Press.
...
In a blind test, the AP gave temperature data to four independent statisticians and asked them to look for trends, without telling them what the numbers represented. The experts found no true temperature declines over time.


Gotta credit AP for creative methodology!
"Here's some numbers. Tell me what you find."

Reading the full article suggests that statistical analyses ought be left to the pros - AND that good citizenship requires being an intelligent & skeptical consumer of statistical arguments.

Want a book?
Statistics: Concepts and Controversies,
David S. Moore & William I. Notz
Aimed at liberal arts students, the book is intended to help the non-professional become a better, more intelligent consumer of statistical arguments.
(Full disclosure: current edition is the seventh; I taught from the first & second editions!)

Another relevant read:
Improving Performance Through Statistical Thinking
Britz, Emerling, Hare, Hoerl, Janis, Shade
Directed at managers, the book introduces notion of "statistical thinking" in context of management... but still helps the non-professional become a better, more intelligent consumer of statistics.

Neither of these books is 'technical' - few, if any, formulas, summation signs, Greek letters... Quite a few pictures.

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