I shoulda picked "increasing failure rate"!

Back in February:

We're just 75% of the way through February!
Small Oregon bank becomes 14th bank to fail in `09

Fourteen so far this year - and it's only February!
Last year's total? 25.
Note: last year's total of 25 was, "more than in the previous five years combined."

Three possibilities: decreasing failure rate, constant failure rate, or increasing failure rate.
Having no crystal ball, I'll assume constant failure rate... and I'll generously assume next week sees no more bank failures. That'll come to 7 bank failures per month, for a 2009 total of 84!!!

Remember: this is W's fault!!! - no one else's.

I thought the yearly total of 84 was impressively high!

Wrong!
Today's news:

Bank failures top 100, only part of industry woes
By DANIEL WAGNER, AP Business Writer
23 Oct 2009
WASHINGTON – The cascade of bank failures this year surpassed 100 on Friday, the most in nearly two decades.

100!... and it's still October!!!

Again: This is W's doing (with the demi-god Greenspan's able assistance!)

p.s. Most forecasters don't publicize their accuracy. Me - I think it's both fun & responsible to check my work! - In this case I didn't do so well!