NY GOP Scozzafava Endorses Democrat Bill Owens
I'm not Nate Silver, so these numbers don't mean much... but:
... recent polls had Scozzafava at 20%, Dem Owens at 36%, Conservative Hoffman at 35% (presumably 9% undecided).Don't quote me.
Since Scozzafava is still on the ballot (the election is Tuesday!), she'll doubtless still pull some support - let's give her 10%.
As the 'moderate' Republican, with NRA backing, her endorsement of Owens might just mean something.
Let's suppose her endorsement gives Owens 60% of her remaining vote:
- .6*.1 = .06; leaving Hoffman with .4*.1 = .04.
Election day tally?
- Owens = 36% + 6% = 42%
- Hoffman = 35% + 4% = 39%
- Scozzafava = 10%
... and if the 'undecideds' follow the trend:
- Owens: 46%
- Hoffman: 43%
- Scozzafava: 11%
If by some miracle Owens DOES win, the Tea Party crowd will still claim victory - and loudly denounce the renegade Scozzafava.
I'm not-so-secretly praying for this.