Sunday, November 1, 2009

NY-23: update

Good news?
NY GOP Scozzafava Endorses Democrat Bill Owens

I'm not Nate Silver, so these numbers don't mean much... but:
... recent polls had Scozzafava at 20%, Dem Owens at 36%, Conservative Hoffman at 35% (presumably 9% undecided).

Since Scozzafava is still on the ballot (the election is Tuesday!), she'll doubtless still pull some support - let's give her 10%.

As the 'moderate' Republican, with NRA backing, her endorsement of Owens might just mean something.
Let's suppose her endorsement gives Owens 60% of her remaining vote:
- .6*.1 = .06; leaving Hoffman with .4*.1 = .04.

Election day tally?
- Owens = 36% + 6% = 42%
- Hoffman = 35% + 4% = 39%
- Scozzafava = 10%
... and if the 'undecideds' follow the trend:
- Owens: 46%
- Hoffman: 43%
- Scozzafava: 11%
Don't quote me.

If by some miracle Owens DOES win, the Tea Party crowd will still claim victory - and loudly denounce the renegade Scozzafava.
I'm not-so-secretly praying for this.

1 comment:

  1. Pretty close. Closer than me, I might add. I really assumed that when Scozzafava left the race that Hoffman would get it.

    But there is no joy in Mudville. I was disappointed that Deeds ran away from Obama -- running an 85% negative campaign, standing by gun ownership, dissing public option, fumbling around on taxes, being generally charismatically challenged -- so I had given up on that some time ago. I thought our best chance for good news on the evening was Corzine -- billionair Goldman-Sachs exec spends $17mm, retains "his" seat; I was going to be soooo inspired.
    But somehow I fooled myself into thinking Maine 1 was just too appropriate to fail.
    Our time will come; just a few more years of suicides and loathing until people can be people. Oh, the promise of basic human rights for, well, humans.
    What a dream.