Sunday, November 1, 2009

NY-23: Good news?

Republican in NY House race suspends campaign

Once upon a time - about a week ago, I think - the conventional wisdom seemed to be that Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman might just draw enough votes away from Republican Dierdre Scozzafava to give the Democrat, Bill Owens, a fighting chance.

Then the Tea Party wing of the Republican party started playing hardball - sending in Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson, and Tim Pawlenty (!) to stump for Hoffman while simultaneously declaring Scozzafava too liberal!... (much to the chagrin of the Republican Old Guard, represented most visibly & vocally by Newt Gingrich.)

Anyway, today the conventional wisdom seems to be that Scozzafava - being an "ultra-liberal" by upstate NY standards - might have been drawing votes away from Owens... and that her withdrawal may in fact benefit Owens.
It would be sort of fun if, faced with a choice between an outsider (Hoffman doesn't live in the district) who knows nothing about local issues (panned by local paper's editorial board for his ignorance) but who has strong bona fides as a REAL conservative - given a choice between him and an apparently sane Democrat... might the voters of NY-23 choose the Dem???

Me? I'm now looking forward to 2010 more than ever.
... I'm also thinking I should start sending $$$ to Conservative Party challengers in what look to be 'safe' Republican districts!
... and do whatever I can to get Sarah & Fred to campaign for all of 'em!!!... it probably wouldn't hurt to get Glenn Beck on the endorsement circuit, too.

I note that Steve Pearce - reactionary Republican from southern NM - beat Heather Wilson - sort of moderate Republican - in Republican primary for Domenici's vacated Senate seat in 2008 by successfully painting Wilson as too liberal and not a REAL conservative.
Pearce went on to get trounced in the general election by Tom Udall!
(61% Udall; 39% Pearce)

I'm all for the right fielding REAL conservatives, and think this should be encouraged.

aside: I understand that NY-23 has been Republican since just after The Fall. Either way it goes, I'm betting the Tea Partyers will claim victory:
- Hoffman wins... well, this is a clear electoral victory, no special pleading needed.
- Hoffman loses? They started seriously campaigned too late, and the she-devil Dierdre Scozzafava stole the election from 'em.
I'm more than happy to grant 'em a victory dance no matter the outcome.
Again: I'll start looking for Conservative Party candidates to support in 'safe' Republican districts.

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