My loyal readers may have noticed that I've published nothing regarding the current campaign for President. My reason is simple: I don't want to find myself detesting both major-party candidates before June, and feeling compelled to pull lever for convenient third-party candidate in November.
But... a loyal reader has suggested that I owe it to my other loyal readers to publish my predictions regarding the Iowa caucuses. Here goes.
Republican:
No matter who actually wins the Iowa caucus, the result will be interepreted by MSM and pundocracy as a victory for McCain, and as Huckabee's last hurrah. Romney will be described as having a long row to hoe to get the nomination.
Democratic:
No matter who actually wins the Iowa caucus, the result will be interpreted by MSM and pundocracy as a come-uppance for Hillary's well-oiled political machine, and a victory for Edwards. Obama will be described as "scrappy", and we'll be told his candidacy is not over yet.
An aside: in response to drop in oil price in early trading today, AP published an article citing declining crude inventories and increasing refined inventories as reason for the drop. About an hour later, when crude prices were again at $100/bbl or more, AP republished the story, citing declining crude inventories and increasing refined inventories as reason for the increase. (I'm sad to say that I did not save the original version.)
My predictions about media's response to the caucus results at least have the benefit of being made BEFORE the results are known!
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