It's looking like my scenario 4b is the winner:
4b: Clinton wins OH by double-digit margin, TX by single-digit margin
How did your 30 second analysis compare with the brilliant folks on TV?
My bet: you said something more sensible.
Oh! a private buffoon is a light-hearted loon, If you listen to popular rumour; From the morn to the night he's so joyous and bright, And he bubbles with wit and good humour! He's so quaint and so terse, both in prose and in verse; Yet though people forgive his transgression, There are one or two rules that all family fools Must observe, if they love their profession. [Yeomen of the Guard, Gilbert & Sullivan]
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