Monday, March 10, 2008

Iraq headlines (+commentary)

Sunday, 9 March 2008:
Upswing in Iraq attacks not a trend: U.S. military
Monday, 10 March 2008:
Al-Qaeda in Iraq may try for spectacular attacks: general
Monday, 10 March 2008:
Five US soldiers slain in Baghdad suicide attack
Putting on my statistician hat, it's true: one point doth not a trend make.

But how does the military know this isn't the beginning of a trend, unless (as I do) they possess psychic powers? To assert that "upswing in attacks not a trend" is simply unwarranted based on the evidence (very few points). Maybe the conclusion is correct, but the evidence is ambiguous and does not justify the assertion.

From a PR perspective, it makes the military look silly when this positive assessment is followed almost immediately by an official statement that "al-Qaeda in Iraq may try for spectacular attacks"... [... which spectacular attacks will be interpreted by Cheney as evidence that the insurgency is in its last throes, if history be any guide!]

... and it looks even sillier when this is followed, again, almost immediately, by the report that, "five U.S. soldiers slain in Baghdad suicide attack."

When the military starts to be one with the political, We the people are quick to doubt the military. This was the basis of the so-called "credibility gap" that ultimately led to our retreat from Viet Nam.

The Viet Nam-Iraq analogy is in most respects strained... but in this aspect, the parallels seem relevant.

Why can't we admit the simple fact that this war was lost before it began?

It's not the military's fault - they've performed admirably.

It is the fault of W, Cheney, Rummy, Wolfie, and the rest of the highly experienced, brilliant "strategists" of W's first Administration - most of whom are still around!

Stop the madness!

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