A nice summary of our political wisdom in Iraq

The following AP article provides a quick synopsis of our latest brilliance dealing with al Sadr & the Sadrists:

ANALYSIS: Iraq fighting a reality check
By ROBERT H. REID, Associated Press Writer
Sun Mar 30, 2008
BAGHDAD - The Iraqi capital locked down by curfew. U.S. diplomats holed up their workplaces, fearing rocket attacks. Nearly every major southern city racked by turmoil. Hundreds killed in less than a week.
...
All signs indicate that the crackdown was directed primarily at the Mahdi Army, the armed wing of al-Sadr's political movement.

The Sadrists believe the goal was to weaken their movement before provincial elections this fall. Al-Sadr's followers expect to make major gains in the regional voting at the expense of al-Maliki's Shiite partners in the government.
...
Last August, al-Sadr proclaimed a unilateral cease-fire nationwide in an effort to reorganize the force and rein in factions that had branched out into crime.

U.S. commanders acknowledge that truce helped bring down violence in Baghdad.

Nonetheless, U.S. and Iraqi forces continued to chip away at the Sadrists with raids and arrests in Baghdad and elsewhere.

American officials insist the target was not al-Sadr's movement but Iranian-backed renegades who did not abide by al-Sadr's cease-fire.

Al-Sadr's followers didn't see it that way.

Once the crackdown began in Basra, they rose up all over the Shiite heartland, launching rockets into the U.S.-protected Green Zone in Baghdad, firing on American patrols, burning offices of al-Maliki's political party and attacking government installations.

The fact that al-Maliki apparently miscalculated the response casts doubt on his judgment and raises serious questions about his commitment to the U.S. goal of national reconciliation.

"Casts doubt on his judgment" indeed!

This end was foreseeable.

Let me remind my readers: I am NOT a professional political analyst, or a professional diplomat, or a professional soldier... I'm just a guy observing the news, with what I hope is some basic common sense.

Last February, I wrote:

Uh, guys... you sure you want to do this?

Troops Seize More Than a Dozen Suspects in Raid on Baghdad's Sadr City
By Sudarsan Raghavan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, February 8, 2008
BAGHDAD, Feb. 7 -- U.S. and Iraqi soldiers raided the Shiite district of Sadr City on Thursday and arrested 16 people. The U.S. military said later that one detainee died from wounds received during the operation.

Is this such a good idea?

The reason I ask is that, well... one of the reasons the surge seems to be "working" is that "influential Shi'ite cleric" Moqtada al-Sadr has been keeping his Mahdi Army under control, having declared a formal cease-fire last August. Do you really want to upset him & his followers?

Sadr tells militia to maintain Iraq ceasefire
By Aseel Kami, Reuters
Thu Feb 7, 2008
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Anti-U.S. cleric Moqtada al-Sadr ordered his feared Mehdi Army on Thursday to maintain its six-month ceasefire as members of the militia clashed with U.S. and Iraqi soldiers in Baghdad.

Shi'ite Sadr's spokesman Salah al-Ubaidi said the ceasefire, which expires later this month and has been vital to cutting violence in Iraq, should continue to be observed until militia members are told it is over or has been renewed.
But strains are showing among al-Sadr's followers...
Some members of Sadr's bloc are pressuring him not to extend the August 29 freeze on the Mehdi Army's activities.
...
A new report by the International Crisis Group think-tank said the respite offered by the ceasefire was "exceedingly frail" and that Sadrists -- many of whom complain they are targeted by security forces -- remain extremely powerful.

"Among Sadrist rank and file, impatience with the ceasefire is high and growing," the report said.

Again: is it really such a good idea for the U.S. Army to be conducting raids in Sadr City, the Mahdi Army's backyard?

It really didn't take any specific expertise to recognize that our military & police actions against al Sadr & his followers were - to put it gently - really stupid!

If al Sadr's Mahdi Army obeys his latest order to abandon armed resistance, will we finally decide to engage with him in dialog? Or will we again take advantage of his "weakness" - as evidenced by his willingness to forego armed conflict - to continue attaking him, and allowing Maliki & the Iraqi army to attack him?

An aside: does it strike anyone else as just a bit odd that al Sadr is the party continuing to seek a political solution via dialog, while we - the U.S. and our Iraq Government allies - always want to duke it out?

Another aside: here's a fun idea for some aspiring journalist - or maybe just a high school or college student looking for a topic for a history/political science paper. From CPA days till now, construct a timeline of epithets used to describe al Sadr. The common ones are

radical Shiite cleric
anti-American Shiite cleric
influential Shiite cleric
nationalistic Shiite cleric
prominent Shiite cleric

I'm sure there are more. Trace the trajectory of the war using the media's descriptors of al Sadr. I'm thinking it'd make an interesting read. Up until the latest violence, he'd recently been known in the media as "influential" or "powerful" or "nationalistic".

With the latest "anti-militia" campaign, his political rehabilitation in the media ended, and he became again, "radical" or "anti-American".

Note: for further observations regarding our dealings with al Sadr, see, e.g., Our Creature lives!

Stop the madness!