Tuesday, May 18, 2010

reading tea leaves

Last night Rachel told us that specific election results didn't matter so much as harbingers of November general election as would TURN-OUT.

So, here are some numbers:
PA (99% reporting):
Senate Rep voters: 816,292
Senate Dem voters: 1,043,037

Governor Rep voters: 848,589
Governor Dem voters: 1,016,405
Okay - looks like PA shows more enthusiasm among Dems... at least based on absolute turn-out.
(It'd be nice to know absolute numbers as % of registered voters, but quick search has not turned up voter registration data.)

KY (119 of 120 precincts reporting):
Senate Rep voters: 351,927
Senate Dem voters: 520,412
Again - in only state-wide election, Dems outperform GOP in absolute turn-out.
(... and again, it'd be nice to know % relative to registered voters.)

Sen Rep voters (82% precincts reporting): 123,431 (=133,968 prorated to 89% reporting)

Sen Dem voters (89% precincts reporting): 310,741
Again, Dem absolute turn-out eclipses GOP - by a decent margin.

So - IF primary voter turnout is predictive of turnout in general elections, these three nationally-prominent contests bode well for Dems come November.

... IF...

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